How do you decide whether or not to buy that trendy item? When is it fashion forward to adopt a trend? How do you know when you've "missed the boat," so to speak?
In 1962, Everett Rogers put forth the famous theory of diffusion of innovations. According to Rogers' theory, a given innovation (or recycled innovation as often is the case in fashion) will go through a process of diffusion in the population over time. This process will proceed in phases as the five types of consumers adopt the product. The first to adopt the innovation will be the "innovators" (enthusiasts), or about 2.5% of the population. Once the "innovators" have adopted the innovation, the early adopters will start to pick up on it. Once acceptance reaches a certain level, usually between 5 and 20 percent, there will be a takeoff and the product will sweep the early and late majorities. The last to adopt the innovation will be the laggards. Eventually the innovation will reach saturation.
Rogers 1995
The theory of diffusion of innovations is often useful in understanding how new technologies spread through populations. I like to think of trends in fashion this way.
When we consider a specific trendy fashion item, we can simply identify which stage of diffusion an item is in at present, or we can illustrate the entire process up to the current stage. I like to make a mental map of the diffusion of a given trend in fashion before I decide whether or not to adopt it.
To do this, I find it is helpful to draw on the ideas of Malcolm Gladwell as well. Malcolm Gladwell drew inspiration for The Tipping Point from Rogers' work. In The Tipping Point, Gladwell puts forth several ideas about how a given innovation or product reaches critical mass and "tips," becoming an epidemic (i.e. sweeping the majorities and eventually the laggards). He describes certain actors who are instrumental in causing products to reach a takeoff point and applies his theoretical framework to the hushpuppy--a major fashion trend of the 90s. When I think of the diffusion of fashion trends in terms of Rogers' theory, I find that one of these types of actors who we can observe causing epidemics to tip is those who Malcolm terms "connectors," or people who have high visibility and thus influence the masses. Celebrities are the classic connectors. Going back to this idea of Gladwell's helps me mentally map a trend along the Rogers bell curve.
To illustrate the ideas described here, let's first consider a fashion trend which has just about reached saturation, and then we'll consider a trend that has yet to tip.
The cowboy boot has just about hit saturation as a trend in fashion. I recall seeing the Pierre Hardy santiags on Daria Werbowy in an editorial in the December 2004 issue of Paris Vogue. Cowboy boots started to become popular in early 2005, and the early adopters and early majority started to snap them up. However, they did not reach a tipping point until when department stores like Nordstrom, Bloomingdales, et al. offered a large selection of the boots starting in late Summer of 2005. Interestingly enough, the department stores made cowboy boots readily available a few months after they started being seen on a number of celebrities. Lindsay Lohan, Nicole Richie, and Mischa Barton, to name a few, were photographed in their cowboy boots as early as May 2005. This would suggest that celebrities are really key drivers in generating demand for a product in fashion, and in persuading large retailers like Nordstrom's to supply them to the majority. The trend continued to spread through the majority as big retailers really pushed the boots for the 2005 holiday season and even in early 20006. Cowboy boots are still making their way to the laggards as they are still being sold (though in smaller numbers) in department stores and on sites like Victoria's Secret.
Now let's consider a trend which has spread to innovators and some early adopters but has yet to sweep the majority: lace-up oxford shoes for women. I can't say I've been following this one closely as it does not appeal strongly to me as of yet (perhaps it will grow on me), but I've noticed them in fashion shows and on fashion "innovators" for several months. About a month or two ago I saw a photograph of Kate Moss wearing them, and yesterday I saw Mary Kate Olsen photographed in a pair. Mary Kate Olsen, while a fashion innovator in her own right, is also a major connector. Kate Moss connects to much of the early majority, but I would think Mary Kate has a broader influence in the general population. IMHO, the liklihood that oxfords will tip has just increased significantly.
Note: to see any of the images in this post larger, just click them.
So how to decide if it's fashion forward to adopt a trend at this moment in time? (First things first, if you are totally averse to a trendy item from the start, you don't have to bother with thinking about its diffusion on the Rogers curve. For example, I hated Uggs from the moment I saw them and no amount of peer influence could change this; I made up my mind never to adopt the trend before even thinking about its diffusion.) But let's assume there's a trend you are considering adopting. Determine where you think the trend is on the Rogers bell curve. Once you've done this, you can decide if you want to adopt the trend or not based on (a) how much you care about being "ahead of the curve," (b) whether or not you have access to the item or even the resources to acquire it, and a whole set of personal characteristics that I hope to explore in a future post.
Needless to say, perceptions of the diffusion processes of trends vary a lot by individual. I predict that plenty of people will disagree with my description of the diffusion of cowboy boots because our perceptions of the process will differ. (By the way, if your perception of this diffusion differs significantly from my own I would love to talk about it with you. It's fascinating to know what others' perceptions are; they often influence our own.)
I'll be mapping some trends this way in future posts. Next up: skinny pants.
Skinny jeans, diffused: http://google.com/trends?q=skinny+jeans%2C+bootcut+jeans
Posted by: Phil | May 28, 2006 at 10:50 AM
Also, I wrote a quick post explaining how to pick trends out of the adoption curve: http://millionairesocialite.com/?p=145
"Long story short, coolhunting is a hit-or-miss tactic that relies on identifying obscure but interesting bits of culture whereas trendspotting is best done by spotting memes that have already been taken up by early adopters and are on their way into the mainstream."
Posted by: Phil | May 28, 2006 at 10:52 AM
I hope you aren't suggesting that I got inspiration from you again. Because that is absolutely not the case. Just making sure.
Posted by: Elsa | May 28, 2006 at 11:15 AM
Just adding to the discussion :)
"By the way, if your perception of this diffusion differs significantly from my own I would love to talk about it with you. It's fascinating to know what others' perceptions are; they often influence our own."
Posted by: Phil | May 28, 2006 at 11:20 AM
If you were just being friendly, thanks for the links.
Posted by: Elsa | May 28, 2006 at 11:21 AM
As a fan of Malcolm Gladwell *and* fashion, this was a great read. I recall a friend of mine, an innovator, having cowboy boots in early 2004. I liked hers but she'd found them in a thrift store and there was no equivalent to anywhere. By the time they were widely available, I was sick of them. However, I love the oxfords I got about a month ago from amazon of all places. It's great to see how diffusion affects fashion choices (ie: saturation vs rarity.)
Posted by: Account Deleted | October 19, 2006 at 03:08 PM
I accidentally came across this post while googling things regarding my beloved oxfords obsession-lol-and I have to say, this is probably one of your best posts ever.
Posted by: Stella Kae | February 27, 2007 at 04:12 AM
what is your opinion about adoption of fashion and diffusion theory within and between cultures and nations...????
Posted by: monika mae | August 12, 2007 at 02:30 PM
Posted by: monika mae | August 12, 2007 at 02:32 PM
Please take a look at my artblog for revenue opportunity
http://artandfaith-john.blogspot.com/
Posted by: tom | November 03, 2008 at 01:14 PM
Thanks for sharing this to us, I enjoyed reading this, such an informative post. I hope to read more articles about fashion soon. thanks.
-mikee-
Posted by: wholesale kids clothing | August 25, 2009 at 01:07 AM
I have a doctoral seminar class and this is being presented ...wow!
Posted by: Andy | October 08, 2009 at 08:45 AM
Whats the current fashion trends for 2010?
any websites its a project
Posted by: generic viagra | March 11, 2010 at 11:53 AM
The quality is very good, can enter our website.
Posted by: christian louboutin | March 22, 2010 at 04:57 AM
Replica jerseys are becoming rapidly popular as regular attire. And therefore, you will notice many teenagers donning a Bill Russell or Oscar Robertson jersey in pubs, colleges and discos. In fact,[url= http://www.jerseysleague.com]nfl jerseys[/url]even individuals who are not nba fans have started wearing cheap [url= http://www.jerseysleague.com]mlb jerseys[/url] sthese jerseys as a style statement.
Posted by: nfl jerseys | March 22, 2010 at 05:00 AM
I'm so into fashion, from my dog to my living room and up to my closet I just love fashion.
Posted by: kamagra | April 27, 2010 at 05:34 PM
What a great post. All of the projects look great! you make it look so simple to make this purse that I'll have to try it myself! Thanks!
Posted by: Jordans 16 | May 10, 2010 at 05:23 AM
"this is one of the most excellent resourceful websites of its kind.
I enjoy reading it every day.Sinn replica watches,http://www.watcheslux.com/sinn-watches.html
I will be back."
Posted by: replica watches | July 24, 2010 at 03:36 AM
I love mental Labour and physical labor, perhaps even said, I love manual labor. When in the physical labor in any good understanding, combined together in the hands and brain, I feel more special.Do you think so?
Posted by: Asics shoes | September 18, 2010 at 06:09 AM
The post is very informative.I look forward to more posts.Thanks
Posted by: Account Deleted | October 04, 2010 at 03:34 AM
Love this movie as well as the serial. Really funny, thanks for sharing it with us.
Posted by: yiwu market | October 10, 2010 at 10:42 PM
It’s interesting and fun to see things from the other side of the gender coin. It’s often not too terribly different.Thanks, friend.
http://www.suprashoesweb.com
http://www.nikedunkhi.com
Posted by: suprashoesweb | January 01, 2011 at 10:43 AM
I love mental Labour and physical labor, perhaps even said, I love manual labor.
Posted by: Steelers jerseys | February 10, 2011 at 10:36 PM
If you were just being friendly, thanks for the links.
Posted by: Discounted MBT Shoes | April 07, 2011 at 08:52 PM
Great piece of article. It explains so much about the topic. I should say it is a detailed article. Talks about a variety of things - something which I never thought could exist. What I found different in your article is the way you have gone about to explain the topic in a simplistic way.
Posted by: Leather Jackets | April 19, 2011 at 08:05 AM