Aesthetics + Economics

Kork-Ease: The New Uggs?

Let's see: Is the shoe fundamentally unnatractive? Check. Is its popularity fueled by much hype? Check. Is it overpriced for what it is? Check. Will customers defend their decision to purchase the shoes by gushing about how "comfortable" they are? Check.

Reality check: IMHO, if you're sacrificing looks for "comfort" and paying $185 to do so, you're caught up in the hype.

I don't object to the style of the shoe. In fact, I would say that the Prada version is executed nicely. The Prada shoe is more chic than clunky. The Kork-Ease, on the other hand, is more clunky than anything.

 

Left: the Kork-Ease

Right: Prada platform sandal

Fashion Trends + Diffusion Theory

How do you decide whether or not to buy that trendy item? When is it fashion forward to adopt a trend? How do you know when you've "missed the boat," so to speak?

In 1962, Everett Rogers put forth the famous theory of diffusion of innovations. According to Rogers' theory, a given innovation (or recycled innovation as often is the case in fashion) will go through a process of diffusion in the population over time. This process will proceed in phases as the five types of consumers adopt the product. The first to adopt the innovation will be the "innovators" (enthusiasts), or about 2.5% of the population. Once the "innovators" have adopted the innovation, the early adopters will start to pick up on it. Once acceptance reaches a certain level, usually between 5 and 20 percent, there will be a takeoff and the product will sweep the early and late majorities. The last to adopt the innovation will be the laggards. Eventually the innovation will reach saturation.

Rogers 1995

The theory of diffusion of innovations is often useful in understanding how new technologies spread through populations. I like to think of trends in fashion this way.

When we consider a specific trendy fashion item, we can simply identify which stage of diffusion an item is in at present, or we can illustrate the entire process up to the current stage. I like to make a mental map of the diffusion of a given trend in fashion before I decide whether or not to adopt it.

To do this, I find it is helpful to draw on the ideas of Malcolm Gladwell as well. Malcolm Gladwell drew inspiration for The Tipping  Point from Rogers' work. In The Tipping Point, Gladwell puts forth several ideas about how a given innovation or product reaches critical mass and "tips," becoming an epidemic (i.e. sweeping the majorities and eventually the laggards). He describes certain actors who are instrumental in causing products to reach a takeoff point and applies his theoretical framework to the hushpuppy--a major fashion trend of the 90s. When I think of the diffusion of fashion trends in terms of Rogers' theory, I find that one of these types of actors who we can observe causing epidemics to tip is those who Malcolm terms "connectors," or people who have high visibility and thus influence the masses. Celebrities are the classic connectors. Going back to this idea of Gladwell's helps me mentally map a trend along the Rogers bell curve.

To illustrate the ideas described here, let's first consider a fashion trend which has just about reached saturation, and then we'll consider a trend that has yet to tip.

Almost Girl is Mistaken

I have just been very publicly accused by blogger Almost Girl of ripping off her ideas. Funnily enough, nothing could be farther from the truth. It turns out we had more in common than I realized after a cursory read of her site.

However, I will point out that my perfects basics post mentions Louboutin Decolletes and Lanvin flats as opposed to Prada Sport kitten heels...

Perfect Basics: The Pinnacle of Luxury

For me, perfect basics are the pinnacle of luxury. Simple, classic, and versatile, they are not only breathtaking, but always a good investment. They complement a vast range of ensembles, carry you through au moins three seasons, and can typically be recycled at a later date due to their original exquisiteness.

Now, part of the reason they are so special is that they are indeed a rarity. We are not talking about the ubiquitous Delman flats. Rather, we are talking about camel lizard Lanvin ballerines or the Louboutin Clichy. Those who live outside of major fashion locales don't have access to them unless they are able to nab them before they sell out on monamoore.com. And if one does happen to live in, say, New York, scoring a pair may require some searching. Even Jeffrey or Barneys may not carry the exact shoe you are looking for.

Finally, perfect basics are often quite expensive. However, they offer a higher level of utility than many alternatives at similar prices.

How to choose the perfect basic:

- Color: The key word is versatility. For shoes or bags, you'll want to go with black, white, camel, beige, a rosy beige, or possibly brown. The Lanvin ballerine has an absolutely gorgeous line, but how often could you really wear the turquoise patent leather version?

- Line: The line must be absolutely perfect.

- Simplicity: Embellishment almost always becomes tired. Also, small touches like the black trim featured on many an S/S '06 Prada shoe can become dated in a season.

TOP: Lanvin flats, Louboutin Decollete

LEFT: Kate Moss rocks her black patent leather Lanvin flats.

Cut It Out - FW 06/07

LEFT: Hussein Chalayan

RIGHT: Alexandra Neel suede vertige sandal with metal heel

photos: style.com

Paper Denim Price Change Revisited

A while back, fashion blogs Millionaire Socialite and Fashiontribes featured posts about Paper Denim & Cloth's decision to lower the prices of their jeans.

Millionaire Socialite noted that PD&C's lowering its prices may push down the prices of its competitors in the "premium" denim market. Fashiontribes built on this and discusses two possible scenarios that may result from the change.

I figured I'd add my thoughts to the mix:

Pricy, premium denim is not on its way out just yet. Rather, consumer preferences are shifting away from the tricked out premium jeans. Specifically, a trend of moving away from embellished, distressed denim (which PD&C and their competitors specialize in) toward plain-pocket denim (à la Acne, Sass and Bide, Superfine, and J. Brand) is emerging. This means that, sooner or later, we should see a remarkable decrease in market demand for the kind of jeans produced by PD&C et. al.

On a graph, this change in consumer preferences leads to a leftward shift of the demand curve for jeans of the type produced by companies such as PD&C, Chip and Pepper, Seven for All Mankind, and Citizens of Humanity to name a few. This is essentially Fashiontribes' second graph.

This process will take some time. Consumers will take time to adopt the new clean denim trend, to find a pair of the new brandless jeans that suit them, et cetera.

Eventually this should force some of the smaller of PD&C's competitors to exit the market or simply scale down. Citizens and Sevens will probably stay strong in coming years as they are very well established and have a loyal following. However, a key component of the value of Seven, Citizens, and PD&C type jeans is the pocket design--which is quickly becoming passé. Thus it's possible that these brands may not last too too long into the future.

What's the lesson? For fashion companies, longevity requires broader foundations than a single trend (such as embellished "premium" denim). Acne's business model seems a lot shrewder than that of Seven for All Mankind or CIH, in that Acne engages in a range of activities, from fashion to advertising to design to film production, and can fall back on these when their jeans go out of style.

 

The Dress - FW 06/07 - When in Doubt, Add Black Tights

There are many options for dresses this coming Fall season.

The trick is making sense of them all.

What we see for Fall is a continuation of the "winterizing" of dresses. For efficiency-minded shoppers seeking to maximize the utility they can derive from a given dress, I would suggest investing in a Spring dress that will be appropriate for Fall when "winterized." This is the first post in a series about the FW 06.07 dress.

First up: Pick a simple, jewel tone dress. Add black tights and shoes. Throw in some patent leather for good measure.

From left to right: Versace, Proenza Schouler, Michael Kors.