Aesthetics + Economics

Precious Metals - SS 07

Metallics for Spring 2007: yet another trend we predicted "extrapolating" from resort. What's your favorite look?

Behnaz Sarafpour, Celine, Giles Deacon, Andrew Gn

Michon Schur, Byblos, Versace, Myself (Kai Kuhne)

Rompers - SS 07

Would you dare to wear one? I'm sure the buyers for stores targeting younger women are thrilled with the range of clothes designers are showing for their customers , from rompers to ultra brief dresses. I myself could go for the Brian Reyes.

Erin Fetherston, Brian Reyes, Proenza Schouler

Betsey Johnson, Chaiken, Dolce & Gabbana

Zip It - SS 07

Now this is a trend for Spring 2007 that I didn't see coming.

Josh Goot, Alice Roi

TSE, Catherine Malandrino

Behnaz Sarafpour, Sinha-Stanic

Dots - SS 07

We've only seen the shows in New York it's already apparent that dots will be a trend for Spring 2007. (But you knew that if you had read my predictions for Spring 2007.)

Alice Ritter, J. Mendel

Malo, Zac Posen

Lela Rose, Matthew Williamson

Photos: Style.com, Elle.com, NYMag.com

Predictions for Spring 2007

As a result of the remarkable growth in the market for pre-collections in the past few years, the Spring resort collections have become somewhat of a "crystal ball" for fashion devotees trying to predict the major trends for spring. (Well, at least the fashion devotees who don't have access to trend forecasts.)

Basically, resort collections have become increasingly important for retailers, making up larger and larger proportions of store buyers' orders for the Spring season. As Calvin Klein designer Franciso Costa told the New York Times, pre-collections (such as resort) now "serve as a 'testing ground' for the runway." Designers use resort collections to run their ideas by buyers, and then develop and "embellish" the ones that are well received for their Spring collections.

I will arrive in New York tomorrow for Fashion Week, and the following are a few trends from the resort collections which may appear on the runways for Spring 2007.

Metallics at John Galliano, Calvin Klein, Calvin Klein, Nina Ricci

Ajoure at Derek Lam, Calvin Klein

Stripes at Balenciaga, Calvin Klein, Louis Vuitton, Yigal Azrouel

Volume at Marc Jacobs, Stella McCartney

Drop waists at Stella McCartney, Rochas, Doo.Ri, Vera Wang

The red dress at Narciso Rodriguez, Versace

Dots at Balenciaga, Versace, Oscar de la Renta, Stella

Paper Denim Price Change Revisited

A while back, fashion blogs Millionaire Socialite and Fashiontribes featured posts about Paper Denim & Cloth's decision to lower the prices of their jeans.

Millionaire Socialite noted that PD&C's lowering its prices may push down the prices of its competitors in the "premium" denim market. Fashiontribes built on this and discusses two possible scenarios that may result from the change.

I figured I'd add my thoughts to the mix:

Pricy, premium denim is not on its way out just yet. Rather, consumer preferences are shifting away from the tricked out premium jeans. Specifically, a trend of moving away from embellished, distressed denim (which PD&C and their competitors specialize in) toward plain-pocket denim (à la Acne, Sass and Bide, Superfine, and J. Brand) is emerging. This means that, sooner or later, we should see a remarkable decrease in market demand for the kind of jeans produced by PD&C et. al.

On a graph, this change in consumer preferences leads to a leftward shift of the demand curve for jeans of the type produced by companies such as PD&C, Chip and Pepper, Seven for All Mankind, and Citizens of Humanity to name a few. This is essentially Fashiontribes' second graph.

This process will take some time. Consumers will take time to adopt the new clean denim trend, to find a pair of the new brandless jeans that suit them, et cetera.

Eventually this should force some of the smaller of PD&C's competitors to exit the market or simply scale down. Citizens and Sevens will probably stay strong in coming years as they are very well established and have a loyal following. However, a key component of the value of Seven, Citizens, and PD&C type jeans is the pocket design--which is quickly becoming passé. Thus it's possible that these brands may not last too too long into the future.

What's the lesson? For fashion companies, longevity requires broader foundations than a single trend (such as embellished "premium" denim). Acne's business model seems a lot shrewder than that of Seven for All Mankind or CIH, in that Acne engages in a range of activities, from fashion to advertising to design to film production, and can fall back on these when their jeans go out of style.